Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making

Abstract

Abstract Every additional tonne of carbon dioxide emissions adds to global warming1. This means that decisions to approve new fossil fuel projects represent pivotal moments in shaping Earth’s future climate trajectory. Yet, the specific additional global warming caused by project-level CO2 emissions, and the impacts of that warming, are rarely incorporated into decision-making on the acceptability of new fossil fuel projects. Here, we show how quantifying this additional warming enables concrete, foreseeable consequences to be identified and evaluated in a formal risk assessment framework. This approach reveals that major socioeconomic and environmental consequences can be attribut..